It does not seem to be very difficult to do an excercise in how the world could look like under conditions of severe shortages of oil. Dmitry Orlov in his blog turns to the collapse of the ex-USSR for inspiration , but one might as well can have a look to anywhere on this planet, except where I used to live, the still well functioning welfare states, most of them in nordic Europe. As soon as one has in mind a post peak scenario of resource scarceness, one can give meaning to whole lot of present day events.

A shrinking economy is an importance consequence of a resource crash. The state will have less tax income, and will need to form alliances with large corporations for keeping the country going. General tendency in many present day countries is already a contracting state willingly (neo-liberalism) or unwillingly, loosing control and direction over major policies, but gaining force in the spheres where it remains most active (army, police, intelligence, banking). Large multi-national companies are able to rule key high-tech industries, and are able even with resource scarcity to keep running key technologies needed for certain essential high-tech sectors like food production, mining, and chemical industry. The question remains who will control mobile telephone and internet industry.

Low and middle class citizens loose at this moment important security on all levels: employment, health, protection against crime. In general people are less and less valuable as consumer for the economy. Their expenditures as consumers no longer stimulates the beginning of large investment projects. No money from consumers and scarce resources means it will be very difficult to start any large investment projects, meaning less jobs, meaning less buying power, meaning even less investment in new projects. Economy contracts to essential elements. No more paid leisure activities, no more foreign holidays, no more new furniture and cloths each year, no more glossy magazines, no more luxury, foreign, off-season food, less television and expensive action movies. So far so good. Would many environmentalists say. That is what we have been waiting for so long. But ofcourse people will not just accept all this just like that, without some kind of ... motivation. Work hard, in an insecure environment without getting compensated will cause rebellion. The state, the “mafia” and strong corporations backed up by the state and the mafia will take care that rebellion will be very difficult. But by force alone they will not able to surpress rebellion. So we need a new ideology or religion. Something that we have already and the many people believe in already, called: technology. The last prophet about whom everybody is talking as our big hope is called nuclear fusion. Only this energy source will allow us to continue with our energy-intensive life style. Some people know it is possible (our priests), but the masses belief it is possible, without knowing or asking exactly what it is. So our scientist- priests can hide successfully that it will never become a commercial possibility.

But where will be room for manoeuvre for the free spirits, for the creative, for the responsible in all this? Basically in areas that are not interesting enough for the mafia, and not threatening for the state and for multinational corporations. Of course the anti-globalist movement will grow in power, but they will be very quickly be regarded as terrorists or disbelievers in modern technology.

Left-over technology from the consumerist times will be re-used to construct local networks in communication and health care. Laptops can communicate with eachother with local WIFI networks, and need just one linkage to the bigger internet. Local radio stations can be set up. Local social networks, such as immigrant or religious networks, will be functional in helping eachother out in local food, security and education issues. But still, people die of untreated or wrongly treated sicknesses and malnutrition. This looks familiar? Yes, because all the above described is happening already. Especially in Africa and… in the banlieues of Paris, Bruxelles and Rotterdam..

Leave a Reply